I was running out of content last week to write about, thank god we had some interesting price move today — hoping to see further action in this week. Mostly due to the above expected retail inflation surge of 6.52%.
Bank nifty's fall today was not due to the above expected CPI — i can say this with assurance because there was anomaly in the price action of hdfcbk vs bank nifty. Over the last couple of weeks there was a good correlation in the price action of bank nifty (index) vs Hdfcbk (the major weighted stock).
Today's fall was mainly due to the beating SBI took today — is the Adani fear back again ? because LIC also took a hit today.
Coming back to the subject, bank nifty fell 1.02% ~ 424 pts from the HOD to the first leg low at 10.05. We had another leg of fall 0.59% ~ 244pts to the LOD at 12.20.
From there we had a recovery of 188pts and then a close with a negative bias. The candle at 14.45 may be from the CPI expectation !
On 10th Feb we did discuss the possibility of bearishness, read the report here
Looking at today's fall from the resistance level — i foresee more pain ahead as the nearest support point is 380 to 400pts away. If we fall that much tomorrow — then the algos & the trend following traders will kick in & we can expect further dip.
I was expecting the India inflation numbers to be reported tomorrow, the source i follow investing.com had mentioned in their calendar as 14th for India CPI. Not that i was planning to take a positional trade !
The far away OTMs did not react that much to the fall today, even though India Vix surged 7.3% today, the bank nifty implied volatility has not shot up that much. May be tomorrow we can see some action on far OTMs.
In the last 15mts we did see some aggressive options writing at CEs, these again would be the positional shorting done because of bank nifty's failure to take out the resistance. Absence of positive is getting considered as negative here !
15mts TF is still not bearish, it shows sideways momentum only.
1hr TF — the price is starting to dip, took a turn from the resistance level. I am seriously expecting the swing low of 39421 getting taken out very soon.
There were anomalies in the bank nifty components trading today, lets discuss it one by one
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HDFC bank outperformed other major banks. Even though the forenoon session was below water, there was a rally of 1% from 12.15 to 14.05. In the same interval other banks fell — which could mean this might be the counter weight applied to prevent bank nifty falling very quickly
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ICICI had a fall of 1.11% from 10.45 to close in 2 legs. Both the legs showed aggressiveness. Its not wrong to say, the bell saved ICICI today.
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SBI had an intraday swing of -4.21% ~ 23.43pts and that too in opening 45mts. From there there was a narrow range bound trade resembling an inverted flag. This could mean there could be one more flag like pattern in near future.
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AXIS also had a fall today, but it was not surprising as the chart pattern was bearish from the previous many days. There was a fall of 1.31% between 10.55 to 12.35.
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Kotak had a super opening candle and then 5 consecutive red candles that gave away the gains and dipped kotak below water. The max trade range was only 1.29% even though the length of the candles seemed quite big. Final close was flattish.
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IndusInd had a negative pattern today, but when the previous days are analyzed together it shows just a sideways momentum.
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