In this monthly series banknifty has moved up 2958pts ~ 7.40%. By any standards that is really superb. It has taken out 7 crucial resistances in the process and is now exactly at the 8th resistance point.
This outperformance is cementing India's growth story to the global financial markets. Everywhere else the news of bank collapse, credit issues were making the headlines and here our banks have made credible progress.
Weekly Analysis
Banknifty has gained 691pts ~ 1.64% in this expiry week. 22% of the monthly gains came in its last week. We all know April series was cut short by lot of holidays and this was the first full week we really had.
We took out only 1 resistance this week i.e 42576. Banknifty is on the verge to take out the next resistance of 43012 soon.
Daily Analysis
Banknifty opened inline and had a long shadow in its first candle. For a month I thought we might have a red day today. The global hand over was negative — so took the liberty to assume we will also fall today.
Once the opening minutes of volatility was done with, we had a range based trade till 13.15. After that we started picking up the direction. This was where my analysis went wrong. Looking at the options data, I was expecting nifty50 to go up and banknifty to go down.
The break direction was not down, but up and we made a nice and strong bullish pattern to end the day.
The resistance of 43012 was tested at 15.10, since we ran out of time we did not see a short-covering at this level. Already all the option premiums were near zero.
Comparing with Nifty50, banknifty options had some price volatility on the CE side, but again the rally came very late in the day and most of the option traders would have lost patience by then.
Nifty50 had a steady and upward tilting pattern the entire day and its options data was suggesting the bullish move. Never in the day Nifty50 looked tired or negative — it had more momentum and strength compared to banknifty today.
Coming to the 15mts of banknifty, the price action formed is bullish with stability. We can think of the range based consolidation over for now.
1hr TF is also showing immense upward strength. The bulls have really made the banknifty proud this entire weekly & monthly series.
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